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By Shin Jihae
Among the surprises and shocks thrown up by the political situation around the early election, from political circles are sprouting many various factors, which if they become real, would seem to be influencing each party to take on an ideological idea as their slogan. Here we examine the factors that inluence the so-called large-scale theory, the constitutional revision, and a third party.
With an unprecedented early election, the result of the [opposition] Democratic Party’s primary election is of supreme interest [to the public]. Starting from Honam on the 25th, the candidates will be selected through Chungcheong, Yeongnam and the metropolitan area in succession. If the candidate Mun Jaein wins a big victory in the first race it is likely that he will build an unattainable lead. However if Ahn Heejeong received a surprise nomination, the contest may change. Analysts are undecided as to whether the success of No Muhyeon from 2002 [who won the first round of the nominations easily and went on to take nomination for the Democratic Party before going on to win the election] will be repeated.
Unification behind the conservative candidate is also key. Yu Seongmin insists on unifying the candidates, but Nam Gyeongpil, the governor of Gyeonggi province, said that he would not follow the party line. Meanwhile there has been no confirmation yet of expected candidates like Hong Junpyo and Gim Gwanyong, possibly due to a lack of unity behind candidates.
Analysts believe that a third party candidate could potentially mount a strong challenge the established parties if they do not unify strongly behind their nominations.