29.03.2016
Electoral Poll Results
Since the 23rd of March members of the press in the Seoul region were surveyed. If one looks at the main points, it seems that respondents feel that the race will be especially tight in the capital’s areas of Nowon, Guro and Yongsan. Shall we look at the relevant points for the lead characters in the 16 different areas of Seoul?
Saenuri [New World] leads in 6 regions. NPAD [New Politics Alliance for Democracy] leads in 2 areas. The remaining eight places are currently too close to forecast. One factor will influence the way the election in Seoul drifts; in Incheon in Gyeonggi province, among the 11 areas of questioning of the survey, more than half of the margin of error was within six regions forecast as a tight race.
In Yeongnam I looked at 16 districts. 4 of those returned survey results within the margin of error [ie, extremely close]. Among four other areas, Saenuri or independent candidates are set to grab 3rd place while fighting these close contests. Where independent candidates are currently forecast as being in 1st place there are significant independent variables.
Research done in the Honam region has opposition NDAP candidates ahead in two out of seven areas, with the People’s Party forecast to win three wards, with a tight struggle forecast. In Gangwon’s eight areas, according to the results of the survey Saenuri are due to win 6 areas while the other two are forecast to be very tight struggles.
The entire outcome of the election seems to depend on who will best engage with regions forecasting tight struggles.